Flow strategy triggers — vix, regime, momentum, and when each fires

The flow builder lets you compose simple if/then rules over historical market data. Each rule starts with a trigger — a condition that fires when the market state crosses a threshold — and ends with an action like 'rebalance to portfolio B'.

vix_trigger watches the CBOE Volatility Index. A typical configuration fires when VIX closes above 30, which has historically coincided with significant equity drawdowns. The action node attached to the trigger decides what happens — often a shift into lower-volatility holdings.

regime_trigger uses a regime-classification model to label each day as bull, bear, or chop. It fires on the transition: bull-to-bear flips can be the highest-confidence signal in the toolkit because they require sustained downside, not a one-day fakeout.

momentum_trigger fires when a rolling N-month return on a benchmark crosses zero (or any threshold you choose). The 12-1 momentum signal — 12-month return excluding the most recent month — is the variant most often cited in academic work.

Triggers do not predict the future. They react to a state change that has already happened in the data. Use them to formalise a rule you would otherwise apply by gut feel — not as a forecast and not as a recommendation.

Triggers fire at the daily close in the backtest. Real-world execution has slippage, taxes, and bid-ask costs that the flow tool does not model — strategies that look good on paper can be net-losers after frictions.

Stack triggers carefully. AND-ing two strict conditions can cut the number of fires to almost zero, leaving a strategy that does nothing for years. OR-ing two loose conditions can turn the strategy into a perpetual trading machine.

Walk-forward test before you trust a flow strategy. A rule tuned to fire in 2008 and 2020 may not generalise to a new regime; the flow builder timeline view shows you exactly which historical events the rule reacted to.